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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1198

Mesoscale Discussion 1198
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1198
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0912 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of south-central/southeast NE and
   north-central/northeast KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397...

   Valid 080212Z - 080345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397

   SUMMARY...Severe gusts of 70-80 mph and isolated large hail remain
   possible with a southward-moving complex of storms in Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch 397.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KUEX shows a gradually
   upscale-growing complex of storms tracking southward at around 30-35
   kt across south-central Nebraska. While a consolidated cold pool
   appears to be intensifying, intense/separated supercell structures
   remain evident along/immediately behind the gust front. Given these
   persistent separated supercells and a favorable supercell wind
   profile downstream (upwards of 70 kt of effective shear and a
   large/looping hodograph), instances of large to very large hail up
   to around 2.75 inches remain possible in the near term. However, the
   overall severe risk should be transitioning to a damaging-wind
   threat, owing to the gradual upscale growth. This upscale growth
   should be aided by increasingly orthogonal deep-layer shear to the
   consolidated cold pool and a strengthening southerly low-level jet
   (around 40 kt sampled by downstream VWP). If more robust upscale
   growth does occur, 70-80 mph gusts could become more common.

   ..Weinman.. 06/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40529938 40819808 40899741 40849665 40609592 39959569
               39399622 39099816 39189897 39519940 39899953 40259955

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