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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1197

Mesoscale Discussion 1197
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1197
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0905 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of northwest into central KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396...397...

   Valid 080205Z - 080300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396, 397

   SUMMARY...Wind gusts of 65-80 mph remain possible this evening as a
   storm cluster moves east-southeastward, along with some potential
   for hail and possibly a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...An earlier supercell cluster across northwest KS has
   shown some signs of accelerating east-southeastward, with less of a
   discrete character compared to earlier this evening. This may
   indicate a transition to more of a severe-wind threat, as evidenced
   by recent mesonet gusts of 60-80 mph across Trego County, KS.
   Despite a tendency for gradually increasing CINH with time tonight,
   a strengthening southerly low-level jet (as noted on the KICT VWP)
   may help to sustain this cluster as it moves east-southeastward,
   with a continued short-term threat for severe gusts potentially in
   the 65-80 mph range. In addition, increasing low-level shear/SRH
   with time and southeastward extent could support the threat of a
   tornado. MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg and strong effective shear
   will also continue to support a hail threat with any stronger cells
   embedded within the cluster as it approaches parts of central KS.

   ..Dean.. 06/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   39389949 38949766 38319761 38239819 38339881 38559928
               38779952 39009975 39389949 

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