Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1194

   Mesoscale Discussion 1194
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0616 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southwest/south-central ND and
   northwest/north-central SD

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 072316Z - 080045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A localized strong to severe storm capable of marginally
   severe hail and locally strong/damaging winds is possible during the
   next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorm development is underway over
   southwest ND into northwest SD -- generally focused along a weak
   east/west-oriented stationary boundary. This activity is developing
   along the northern edge of a plume of weak surface-based
   instability, and this weak instability is the main mitigating factor
   for a more robust severe-storm risk. However, proximity forecast
   soundings indicate strong deep-layer shear (around 60 kt of
   effective shear) -- characterized by a long/straight hodograph. This
   wind profile may support brief updraft organization (with transient
   midlevel rotation) -- capable of producing marginally severe hail
   (up to 1 inch) and locally strong/damaging winds (45-60 mph) for the
   next couple hours. Overall, the weak instability should limit the
   severe threat.

   ..Weinman/Majchrowski/Bunting.. 06/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45680266 45950261 46270240 46430217 46530162 46460076
               46170000 45519981 44970025 44850105 45040208 45310256
               45680266