Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1190

   Mesoscale Discussion 1190
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 PM CDT Fri Jun 07 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...southwest
   KS...and the OK/TX Panhandles

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 072040Z - 072245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms posing a threat for severe winds and hail
   may prompt watch issuance this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has recently increased in coverage and
   intensity across the southern/central High Plains along/near a
   surface trough. A rather hot and well-mixed airmass is present
   along/ahead of this activity, as robust daytime heating has allowed
   surface temperatures to reach into the 90s and lower 100s.
   Severe/damaging winds will probably be the main threat with this
   activity as it spreads east-southeastward through the rest of the
   afternoon, and continuing into the early evening. Some of these wind
   gusts could be significant (75+ mph) given very large
   temperature-dewpoint spreads from recent surface observations and
   near-dry adiabatic lapse rates through low/mid levels. Stronger
   deep-layer shear over southeast CO into southwest KS may support
   some threat for a supercell or two, with associated risk for large
   hail in addition to the severe/damaging wind threat. Given current
   observational trends, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed to
   address this increasing severe risk.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/07/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36650475 37430301 38070174 38070034 37330017 36410061
               35760301 35930429 36210476 36650475