Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1189

   Mesoscale Discussion 1189
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the central Gulf Coast and Southeast

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 351...354...

   Valid 182048Z - 182215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 351, 354 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
   continues across Tornado Watches 351 and 354.

   DISCUSSION...A modestly well-organized convective line remains
   ongoing from the central Gulf Coast into eastern Alabama as of 2035
   UTC. While no severe gusts have been observed over the past several
   hours, moderate buoyancy and modestly enhanced effective shear
   preceding this convection will continue to support the maintenance
   of this convective line and additional clusters, with a threat for
   damaging wind gusts. This activity will spread east/northeastward
   through this evening in tandem with a mid-level disturbance and
   attendant southerly, low-level jet. The MXX/EVX/EOX VAD profiles are
   also sampling 125-150 m2/s2 0-500 m SRH ahead of this convection,
   which will continue to promote the potential for a few tornadoes. A
   relatively greater tornado risk may develop from eastern Alabama
   into western Georgia where the convective line is gradually
   developing a more favorable north-south orientation (more
   perpendicular to deep-layer shear vectors) and where surface winds
   are locally more backed.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30478890 31038773 31638657 31968622 32458609 32848588
               33258533 33218475 32988446 32368433 31638446 30908487
               30418577 30168658 30048779 29958870 29968915 30078936
               30248932 30478890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH