Mesoscale Discussion 1184
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024
Areas affected...portions of far eastern Georgia into South Carolina
and North Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 062003Z - 062130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A few 45-60 mph gusts may occur with the stronger storms
that can materialize this afternoon. The severe threat should remain
isolated, so a WW issuance is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are percolating in intensity, with
increasing trends in coverage being gradual at best. Surface
temperatures are reaching or exceeding 90 F in several locales,
which has supported convective initiation thus far. 7.5-8.5 C/km 0-3
km lapse rates are supporting up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE, which would
favor 45-60 mph wind gusts with any of the stronger thunderstorms
that can sustain themselves. However, 19Z mesoanalysis and 18Z RAP
forecasting soundings show relatively weak tropospheric vertical
wind profiles and accompanying shear. As such, mainly short-lived,
pulse-cellular storms should be the dominant mode of convection,
with damaging gusts likely to be limited in areal coverage and
longevity, precluding a WW issuance at this time.
..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/06/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...
LAT...LON 35218267 36278009 36467855 36437745 36057718 35397737
34697782 34037867 33707955 33698047 33638095 33848168
34068206 34278242 35218267