Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1183

   Mesoscale Discussion 1183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

   Areas affected...interior central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061952Z - 062045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasingly widespread strong thunderstorm development
   appears likely across interior central Florida, including the
   Greater Orlando vicinity, through 6-7 PM EDT.  Stronger storms may
   pose a risk for frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, marginally
   severe hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered thunderstorms is
   underway along the the inland advancing sea-breezes across the
   Florida Peninsula.  This is occurring in the presence of weak (10-15
   kt) west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow.  Across north central
   portions of the peninsula, downward mixing of the westerly flow to
   the surface has contributed to the inland advance of the sea-breeze
   from the Gulf coast, while the sea-breeze off the Atlantic is being
   maintained closer to the Atlantic coast.  

   Across the interior peninsula, temperatures have heated into the mid
   90s to around 100F, contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
   2000 J/kg.  With some further inland advance of the Atlantic
   sea-breeze (and associated lower/mid 70s F dew points), CAPE may
   increase further and maximize along its leading edge near the
   interface with the stronger heating. 

   It appears that increasing low-level convergence along the colliding
   sea-breezes may focus intensifying and increasingly widespread
   thunderstorm development along a corridor west of Daytona Beach
   through the Greater Orlando area and into the Avon Park/Sebring
   vicinities by 22-23Z.  Initial stronger cells may pose a risk for
   marginally severe hail and locally strong downbursts, before gusty
   winds along consolidating outflows becomes more prominent.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   28438190 29688147 28968096 27708083 27198105 26948109
               26858124 27308191 28438190