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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1183

Mesoscale Discussion 1183
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1183
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

   Areas affected...interior central Florida

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061952Z - 062045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasingly widespread strong thunderstorm development
   appears likely across interior central Florida, including the
   Greater Orlando vicinity, through 6-7 PM EDT.  Stronger storms may
   pose a risk for frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, marginally
   severe hail and a few strong to severe wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...The initiation of widely scattered thunderstorms is
   underway along the the inland advancing sea-breezes across the
   Florida Peninsula.  This is occurring in the presence of weak (10-15
   kt) west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow.  Across north central
   portions of the peninsula, downward mixing of the westerly flow to
   the surface has contributed to the inland advance of the sea-breeze
   from the Gulf coast, while the sea-breeze off the Atlantic is being
   maintained closer to the Atlantic coast.  

   Across the interior peninsula, temperatures have heated into the mid
   90s to around 100F, contributing to mixed-layer CAPE in excess of
   2000 J/kg.  With some further inland advance of the Atlantic
   sea-breeze (and associated lower/mid 70s F dew points), CAPE may
   increase further and maximize along its leading edge near the
   interface with the stronger heating. 

   It appears that increasing low-level convergence along the colliding
   sea-breezes may focus intensifying and increasingly widespread
   thunderstorm development along a corridor west of Daytona Beach
   through the Greater Orlando area and into the Avon Park/Sebring
   vicinities by 22-23Z.  Initial stronger cells may pose a risk for
   marginally severe hail and locally strong downbursts, before gusty
   winds along consolidating outflows becomes more prominent.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   28438190 29688147 28968096 27708083 27198105 26948109
               26858124 27308191 28438190 

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