Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1182

   Mesoscale Discussion 1182
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0153 PM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into
   northwestern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061853Z - 062000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm
   development will become increasingly likely through 4-6 PM CDT. 
   This may include one or two developing supercell structures, with
   large hail and potentially damaging surface gusts the primary
   potential severe hazards. It is not certain when or if a watch will
   be needed, but trends are being monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...Beneath fairly prominent mid/upper ridging (which
   encompasses much of the Great Basin and Southwest into southern
   Great Plains), and lingering elevated mixed-layer air to the east of
   the southern Rockies, a remnant surface front is becoming the focus
   for strengthening differential surface heating across the
   Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into northwestern Oklahoma.  Enhanced
   low-level convergence along this zone is maintaining sufficient
   moisture within a deepening mixed boundary layer to support CAPE
   increasing in excess of 2000 J/kg. 

   Perhaps aided by lift associated with weak low-level warm advection,
   deepening high-based convective development is ongoing.   With
   additional insolation and the approach of convective temperatures,
   isolated to widely scattered sustained thunderstorm development
   appears increasingly probable through 21-23Z.

   West-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow is weak (around 10-15 kt),
   but veering of winds with height might be contributing to shear
   marginally sufficient to support short-lived supercell structures
   with potential to produce severe hail and wind.  This activity will
   be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to propagate southward
   and southwestward.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36770102 36969965 36729776 35499903 35500061 35450108
               35850173 36390162 36770102