Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1179

   Mesoscale Discussion 1179
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

   Areas affected...far northeastern MD...northern DE and southern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 060217Z - 060315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms near the MD/DE border may
   continue east with the risk for an isolated tornado or damaging gust
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0210 UTC regional radar analysis showed a cluster
   of low topped storms near the MD/DE border. Thee storms have
   retained transient supercell characteristics near a subtle warm
   frontal zone across northern DelMarVa. Ahead of these storms, SPC
   mesoanalysis shows around 500-1000 J/kg of residual MUCAPE
   sufficient for continued updraft maintenance. Low-level shear
   remains favorable for some storm-scale rotation with KDOX VAD
   showing 0-1km SRH of 250-300 m2/s2. While storms have shown less
   intensity with time, the environment ahead of them remains
   conditionally favorable for a brief tornado or isolated damaging
   gusts for a couple more hours this evening. The exact eastward
   extent of the severe risk is uncertain as nocturnal stabilization
   has begun with the loss of diurnal heating. However, a very moist
   low-level environment (dewpoints in the 70s F) may slow
   stabilization and allow storms to remain near surface-based into
   parts of eastern DE and southern NJ.

   ..Lyons/Bunting.. 06/06/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39137579 39227615 39357629 39507623 39647603 39717568
               39747525 39667496 39567474 39457464 39287476 39107488
               39067499 39057509 39077543 39137579