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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1175

Mesoscale Discussion 1175
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1175
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0225 PM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051925Z - 052130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected, with a
   risk of isolated gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado or
   two.  Limited areal coverage and brief nature of risk suggests a
   watch will not be needed.

   DISCUSSION...A band of scattered showers and occasional
   thunderstorms is spreading northeastward across eastern VA into
   eastern MD.  In the wake of this activity, strong daytime heating is
   leading to destabilization of a rather moist air mass across central
   VA, where MLCAPE values have risen into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. 
   Model guidance suggests the approach of a weak mid-level shortwave
   trough, with an accompanied increase in low-level winds.  This will
   result in some strengthening of shear profiles and a greater chance
   of a few more organized or weak supercellular storms in the coming
   hours.  Locally damaging wind gusts are the most likely concern, but
   a brief tornado or two are also possible through the afternoon. 
   Given the limited nature of the threat, a ww is not currently

   ..Hart/Smith.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37327936 37977927 38657874 39097812 38937733 38577696
               37727685 36977749 36747831 36907913 37327936 

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