Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1172

   Mesoscale Discussion 1172
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0255 AM CDT Wed Jun 05 2024

   Areas affected...parts of east TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050755Z - 050930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated, marginally severe wind gusts embedded within a
   broader swath of primarily strong gusts may persist through dawn as
   an MCS moves southeastward across parts of east Texas.

   DISCUSSION...An increasingly ragged QLCS has been progressing
   steadily southeast across the Red River and northeast TX. Sub-severe
   but strong gusts have been common along the outflow. A couple
   marginally severe gusts of 57 and 60 mph have been measured during
   the past hour or so with multiple deeper convective cores on the
   western arc of the MCS across far south-central OK into
   north-central TX. This process of regenerative convection on the
   backside of the MCS/post-outflow may persist owing to the plumes of
   large buoyancy over central TX and steep mid-level lapse rates to
   the west-northwest. These cells may continue to produce strong to
   localized severe gusts in a sporadic fashion, before weakening as
   they shift deeper into the remnant stratiform from the leading line.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34179708 33939680 33259600 33179557 33309493 33489447
               33229404 32699401 32339400 31689452 31359553 31449603
               31629683 32859750 33259755 33899765 34089767 34179708