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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1171

Mesoscale Discussion 1171
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1171
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1128 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Oklahoma...North Texas...Far
   Western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392...393...

   Valid 050428Z - 050630Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 392, 393

   SUMMARY...A linear MCS, associated with strong wind gusts, will move
   across southern and eastern Oklahoma over the next few hours, and
   into far north Texas and far western Arkansas later tonight.
   Although intensity with the line has decreased, there still remains
   a possibility that the line could re-generate during the overnight

   DISCUSSION...Latest mosaic radar imagery shows a line of strong
   thunderstorms over southern and east-central Oklahoma. This line is
   associated with a linear MCS that is located near the northern edge
   of a strongly unstable airmass. Immediately to the south of the MCS,
   MLCAPE is estimated by the RAP to be in the 3500 to 5000 J/kg range.
   RAP forecast soundings overnight within this airmass near the Red
   River and in eastern Oklahoma have substantial directional shear in
   the lowest 3 km, which combined with the strong instability,
   suggests the line could be associated with a few marginally severe
   wind gusts. It still remains possible the line could re-generate as
   it moves southeastward along the instability gradient.

   ..Broyles.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34069848 33499726 33299578 33459464 33769422 34499415
               35529423 36039486 36109550 35879602 35609642 35249669
               34919693 34859789 34629856 34069848 

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