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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1170

Mesoscale Discussion 1170
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1170
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0902 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas of northeastern Oklahoma far southeast KS
   extreme southwest MO and northwestern AR.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 050202Z - 050330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying bowing segments moving out of southern KS
   should persist with a risk for damaging gusts and isolated hail over
   parts of OK, AR and MO. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch will likely
   be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0155 UTC, regional radar imagery showed several
   intensifying bowing structures were located over parts of
   southeastern KS. These storms have produced several measured severe
   and damaging gusts over the last couple of hours. Storms are
   expected to continue propagating southeastward along a buoyancy
   gradient near the OK/AR border into this evening. Additional
   development along the southwest flank is also possible into parts of
   north-central OK with time supporting further upscale growth. The
   moderate MLCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) will continue to support robust
   updrafts with the potential for severe gusts and occasional hail. 

   A further complicating factor is a second cluster of storms
   currently over central OK. These storms are likely to persist and
   may eventually merge with the cluster moving out of KS. While there
   remains some uncertainty on storm evolution, the severe risk is
   expected to increase over eastern OK this evening. A new Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch is likely needed soon.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/05/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36889404 37189403 37569420 37679436 37719463 37339527
               37099604 36919672 36739695 36529693 36239676 35029620
               34439584 34029560 33979526 33959490 33949466 34159440
               34409427 34849411 36179408 36459407 36889404 

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