Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1166

   Mesoscale Discussion 1166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0526 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of central IA far northern MO and southern
   MN

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 042226Z - 050000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Several clusters of thunderstorms appear likely to
   increase in coverage and intensity this evening. While there remains
   some uncertainty on the degree of storm organization, at least some
   potential for damaging gusts and hail may warrant a WW.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, regional radar analysis showed several
   clusters of thunderstorms ongoing ahead of a slow moving cold front
   associated with a broad mid-level trough stretching from southern MN
   to northern MO. Mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints are in place
   over much of the Midwest, and diurnal heating has allowed
   temperatures to warm into the low 80s F. Despite modest low and
   mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
   is sufficient to support strong updrafts. Mid-level shear magnitudes
   are not overly large with the stronger flow aloft displaced to the
   north and east. Still area VADs show modestly curving hodographs and
   effective shear of 25-30 kt over much of IA. Given the degree of
   instability and forcing from the front/ developing cold pools, storm
   organization into multicell clusters or short bowing segments is
   possible. A few transient supercells structures are also possible
   with the more discrete convection. With several measured gusts
   already and the potential for more storms to mature this evening,
   damaging gust and hail potential appears to increasing. Conditions
   are being monitored for a possible weather watch.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   40299375 40029507 40019560 40109582 40329582 40689578
               40909576 41589549 42159512 43059446 43449438 43729436
               43989420 44249366 44199321 44039238 43489212 42549213
               41749247 40859293 40469333 40299375