Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1166

   Mesoscale Discussion 1166
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0216 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern
   New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171916Z - 172115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this
   afternoon, with an associated risk for isolated damaging/severe wind
   gusts. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate temperatures have
   warmed into the mid/upper 90s F with dewpoints ranging from the
   mid-40s to low-50s across portions of the Southwest (as of 19 UTC).
   Modifying the 18z EPZ observed sounding for these conditions, a
   deep, increasingly well-mixed boundary layer extending to near 500
   mb is evident, with low- and mid-level lapse rates exceeding 9-9.5
   C/km and LCLs of 3.5+ km. As continued insolation results in
   convective temperatures being breached, scattered, high-based
   thunderstorms development will occur over the next 1-3 hours. While
   weak mid-level flow and effective shear will limit storm
   organization, inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
   efficient evaporative cooling and a risk for isolated
   damaging/severe wind gusts through this evening. Watch issuance is
   not expected at this time owing to the isolated nature of the severe
   threat.

   ..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31270807 31230915 31261080 31481100 32181132 32501139
               33121133 33361124 33531102 33551039 33430960 33290899
               33120851 32850816 32520788 32000769 31810767 31680779
               31690808 31270807 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH