Mesoscale Discussion 1164 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 042113Z - 042315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected within the next 1-2 hours across portions of central Oklahoma. Large hail up to 1.50-2.50" in diameter, wind gusts exceeding 65-75 mph, and perhaps a tornado or two are expected. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery trends indicate air mass modification is continuing across north central and central OK late this afternoon. A developing cumulus field is apparent near a mesolow just north of I-40 and Clinton, OK. A surface trough and dryline extend southward from this low into portions of southwestern OK. An axis of extreme instability has developed within southeasterly surface winds on the western edge of a residual cold pool from earlier this morning. As destabilization continues, and cooler mid-level temps accompany a mid-level trough slowly progressing eastward over the northern half of OK early this evening, rapid thunderstorm development is expected near the surface low and convergence zones. Although very modest mid to upper flow should limit persistent, discrete storm organization, a few transient discrete supercells will remain possible via veering and increasing flow within the lowest 4 km of the troposphere. In addition, very large CAPE and steep lapse rates (~8.5 C/km) within the hail growth zone could support large hail with any of the discrete cells. Furthermore, localized enhanced 0-1 km SRH is expected near and south of I-40 where surface 10-15 kt winds will likely remained backed increasing the potential for a tornado or two before storms begin to build upscale later this evening. Severe, damaging winds will become more likely by this time. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed soon. ..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 35209946 34439904 34199857 34059772 34469702 34749656 35309646 36019726 36959731 37039800 36959886 35739964 35209946