Mesoscale Discussion 1164
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0413 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024
Areas affected...Portions of central Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 042113Z - 042315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Rapid thunderstorm initiation is expected within the next
1-2 hours across portions of central Oklahoma. Large hail up to
1.50-2.50" in diameter, wind gusts exceeding 65-75 mph, and perhaps
a tornado or two are expected.
DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery trends indicate air
mass modification is continuing across north central and central OK
late this afternoon. A developing cumulus field is apparent near a
mesolow just north of I-40 and Clinton, OK. A surface trough and
dryline extend southward from this low into portions of southwestern
OK. An axis of extreme instability has developed within
southeasterly surface winds on the western edge of a residual cold
pool from earlier this morning. As destabilization continues, and
cooler mid-level temps accompany a mid-level trough slowly
progressing eastward over the northern half of OK early this
evening, rapid thunderstorm development is expected near the surface
low and convergence zones.
Although very modest mid to upper flow should limit persistent,
discrete storm organization, a few transient discrete supercells
will remain possible via veering and increasing flow within the
lowest 4 km of the troposphere. In addition, very large CAPE and
steep lapse rates (~8.5 C/km) within the hail growth zone could
support large hail with any of the discrete cells. Furthermore,
localized enhanced 0-1 km SRH is expected near and south of I-40
where surface 10-15 kt winds will likely remained backed increasing
the potential for a tornado or two before storms begin to build
upscale later this evening. Severe, damaging winds will become more
likely by this time. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed
soon.
..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 35209946 34439904 34199857 34059772 34469702 34749656
35309646 36019726 36959731 37039800 36959886 35739964
35209946