Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1163

   Mesoscale Discussion 1163
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041840Z - 042115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may continue to evolve into an intensifying
   sustained supercell, then upscale growing and organizing
   thunderstorm cluster through 3-5 PM CDT.  A severe weather watch may
   be required within the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...South of the primary trough within the stronger
   westerlies overspreading the northern Great Plains, a perturbation
   within weaker westerlies to the lee of the southern Rockies is in
   the process of overspreading the western Kansas through Texas
   Panhandle vicinity.  Just ahead of this feature, a persistent
   cluster of developing thunderstorms (now slowly progressing east of
   the Russell KS vicinity) has been focused near the northern
   periphery of a plume of very warm elevated mixed-layer air
   overspreading much of the southern Great Plains, likely aided by
   warm advection near the 700 mb level.  Beneath this regime,
   insolation within a boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high
   moisture content is becoming moderate to strongly unstable, with
   CAPE increasing in excess of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   It appears that the storms near Russell are undergoing a period of
   significant intensification with increasing inflow of this air now
   underway.  With the continued eastward progression of the upstream
   impulse, further suppression of inhibition associated with elevated
   mixed-layer may allow for a substantive further increase and upscale
   growth of convection through the 20-22Z time frame.

   Although convection is embedded within weak westerly deep-layer mean
   flow on the order of 10-20 kt, modest shear due to veering wind
   fields with height in lower to mid-levels may be sufficient to
   support a sustained intensifying supercell structure with increasing
   risk for large hail and some potential for a brief tornado. 
   Eventually upscale growth may be accompanied by the evolution of a
   notable mesoscale convective vortex, strengthening mid-level rear
   inflow and increasing potential for strong to severe gusts with
   downward mixing to the surface.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38110080 38739948 39799774 39629620 37709607 36799804
               37150028 38110080