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Mesoscale Discussion 1162 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024 Areas affected...Far eastern Texas and western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041741Z - 041845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A thunderstorm complex near the TX/LA border will continue to slowly progress east-southeastward through this afternoon. A few stronger embedded thunderstorms on its western flank may produce marginally severe hail and localized damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...A remnant overnight thunderstorm complex is beginning to show signs of localized intensification on its western flank early this afternoon over east TX. In particular, latest infrared satellite imagery indicates cloud tops are cooling over Shelby and Nacogdoches Counties. This is also apparent in radar imagery. The convective environment near and just downstream of this system continues to destabilize, with surface temperatures now in the mid to upper 80s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, under modest mid-level lapse rates. Although mid to upper flow is weak, large CAPE within the hail growth zone could support brief instances of marginally severe hail near 0.75-1.25". In addition, precipitation loading within merging clusters in a localized corridor of relatively steeper low level lapse rates may produce damaging wind gusts up to 60-65 mph. Considering the weaker aforementioned flow, narrow corridor of the severe threat, and lack of persistent storm organization, a WW does not appear likely at this time. ..Barnes/Smith.. 06/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32049249 31689233 31199223 30839310 30809353 30829431 31069488 31429529 31719530 32039509 32259478 32389433 32449402 32419357 32359269 32049249 |
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