Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1160

   Mesoscale Discussion 1160
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CDT Tue Jun 04 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast OK...northeast TX...and far southwest AR

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388...

   Valid 040849Z - 041015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 388
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe wind gusts remain possible with a
   short linear cluster moving southeast in southeast Oklahoma.
   Spatiotemporal uncertainty exists regarding this threat downstream
   for an additional severe thunderstorm watch.

   DISCUSSION...A short linear cluster has surged southeastward into
   southeast OK as advertised by the consensus of 00Z CAM guidance.
   Despite riding along the MLCAPE gradient with a feed of ample
   buoyancy amid a 50-kt southwesterly low-level jet per FWS/SRX VWP
   data, measured surface wind gusts have held in the 35-55 mph range
   across several OK-Mesonet and ASOS/AWOS sites. Indeed, the surface
   cold pool has been relatively weak at 4-6 F of cooling in the wake
   of the cluster. Still, an embedded swath or two of lower-end severe
   gusts may occur, especially near the apex of the cluster across the
   rest of southeast OK.

   Confidence is lower on the degree of wind damage threat into
   northeast TX given overall cloud top warming and lack of stronger
   winds measured in OK thus far. At least a localized damaging wind
   threat should exist outside of WW 388 through sunrise.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35089581 34759481 34089415 33499390 32919414 32829458
               32979568 33059624 33589679 34149687 34519679 35089581