Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1157

   Mesoscale Discussion 1157
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Oklahoma...Western Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 040156Z - 040430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to develop across parts of
   Oklahoma and far western Arkansas late this evening. Isolated large
   hail and a few strong wind gusts will become likely. Hailstones of
   greater than 2 inches will be possible. Weather watch issuance will
   become likely, once the timing of cell initiation becomes more
   certain.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a moist airmass in
   place across the much of the southern Plains. Visible satellite
   imagery shows a band of agitated cumulus extending from west to east
   across south-central Oklahoma. The 00Z sounding at Norman shows a
   cap in place near 700 mb with a near surface inversion. However,
   short-term model guidance rapidly strengthens a low-level jet across
   southeastern Oklahoma. Lift associated with this feature will likely
   result in scattered cell initiation between 03z and 04Z. In
   addition, forecast soundings have effective shear near 40 knots with
   700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. As cells initiate and mature,
   supercells with large hail will become likely. Hailstones greater
   than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense
   cells. Even though the storms will be elevated, a few strong to
   severe wind gusts may also occur.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35489439 35199401 34739398 34379412 34109453 34229579
               34549769 34799868 35149901 35689894 35979848 35979762
               35739580 35489439