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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1156

Mesoscale Discussion 1156
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1156
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0716 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Central and Eastern Texas Panhandle...Far Western

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...

   Valid 040016Z - 040215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to increase in coverage
   across parts of the central and eastern Texas Panhandle over the
   next few hours. Isolated large hail and wind damage will be the
   primary threats.

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
   shows multiple isolated severe storms ongoing across the central and
   eastern Texas Panhandle. The storms are located along and near an
   axis of strong instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 2000 to
   4000 J/kg range. A shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery,
   appears to be moving through the Texas Panhandle. Large-scale ascent
   associated with the trough will likely support a gradual increase in
   convective coverage over the next few hours. RAP forecast soundings
   early this evening in the eastern Texas Panhandle have 0-6 km shear
   near 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will
   support an isolated large-hail threat with supercells. As cells
   mature early this evening, a threat for severe wind gusts will also
   be possible. Low-level shear will also be strong enough for an
   isolated tornado threat with any storm that can become dominant.

   ..Broyles.. 06/04/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36440008 36490073 36310134 35760170 34700113 33940010
               33949931 34449909 35019950 36109977 36440008 

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