Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1155

   Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern
   Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

   Valid 032336Z - 040130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible
   with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from
   northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
   Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that
   is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A
   pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where
   surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the
   2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong
   large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level
   convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as
   it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The
   WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with
   directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue
   to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments
   along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the
   line could also have a hail threat.

   ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154
               32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651
               32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387