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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1155

Mesoscale Discussion 1155
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...Northern Louisiana...Southern

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385...

   Valid 032336Z - 040130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 385

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage and hail threat will be possible
   with the stronger cells embedded in and ahead of a line segment from
   northeast Texas into southern Arkansas and northern Louisiana.
   Additional weather watch issuance remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS that
   is moving southeast at about 35 knots across the Ark-La-Tex. A
   pocket of strong instability is present ahead of the line, where
   surface dewpoints are in the 70s F and MLCAPE is estimated in the
   2500 to 3500 J/kg range. The instability, along with strong
   large-scale ascent associated with a vorticity maxima and low-level
   convergence, will support the linear MCS for several more hours as
   it moves southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. The
   WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport has 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with
   directional shear in the lowest 2 km. This environment will continue
   to support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger segments
   along the leading edge of the line. Cells that form ahead of the
   line could also have a hail threat.

   ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33119387 33739272 33879224 33809177 33489146 32799154
               32139208 31779282 31499389 31579517 31909611 32279651
               32859657 33129616 33009513 33119387 

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