Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1155

   Mesoscale Discussion 1155
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the central/southern Great Plains into
   the Ozarks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 162048Z - 162245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorm development is expected from the
   eastern Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas and
   the Ozarks over the next 1-2 hours. Large hail will be the primary
   risk, with localized damaging wind gusts also possible.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts
   developing cumulus across portions of the central/southern Great
   Plains ahead of a slow-moving surface cold front. Surface dewpoints
   range from the low-60s F  across the eastern Texas Panhandle and
   northwest Oklahoma to the mid/upper 60s in northeastern Oklahoma.
   Coupled with diurnal heating, this is contributing to the
   development of 1000-2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. While some uncertainty
   remains regarding thunderstorm development owing to relatively
   neutral mid-level height falls, weak surface convergence along the
   front and erosion of remaining inhibition by surface heating may
   support isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development through
   early evening.

   Should storms develop, strong northwesterly mid-level flow and
   40-50+ kts of effective shear will promote supercell development,
   with the primary risk being large hail. Warming mid-level
   temperatures and weakening mid-level lapse rates may tend to temper
   storm longevity/maintenance, but an instance or two of large hail to
   around golf-ball size (1.75") may be possible pending the
   development of a sustained supercell, with the greatest potential
   across northeast Oklahoma/southeast Kansas.

   Farther west, more isolated thunderstorm development may occur
   across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles. Continued heating/mixing will
   yield a deepening boundary layer through the afternoon, with steep
   low-level lapse rates and LCLs rising to 2-2.5 km. Isolated large
   hail and damaging/severe wind gusts may accompany any storms that do
   develop in this environment.

   ..Chalmers/Hart.. 06/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36129652 35849769 35649853 34970026 34810082 34800117
               34870150 35150170 35570175 36210147 36880103 37380061
               37640019 37879967 38009927 38089852 38059720 37989591
               37939513 37859463 37739438 37489416 37019395 36609398
               36369430 36249467 36219530 36129652 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN