Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1154

   Mesoscale Discussion 1154
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Far eastern MT and western ND

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 032209Z - 040015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms are expected this afternoon and
   continuing into the evening. A few damaging gusts and isolated hail
   are possible. A Watch is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...As of 22 UTC, regional radar analysis showed isolated
   thunderstorms had initiated on the eastern edge of a persistent
   cloud shield near the MT/ND border. Strong diurnal heating has
   allowed surface temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to low 80s
   F. While surface moisture has mixed somewhat, low 50s F surface
   dewpoints and weak upslope flow are contributing to weak
   destabilization. These storms, and additional development may
   continue eastward into western ND with a risk for damaging winds
   given the relatively high cloud bases. While buoyancy is modest
   (~500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE) occasional hail will be possible with the
   stronger updrafts. Given the somewhat limited buoyancy and
   uncertainty on storm coverage, a WW appears unlikely this evening.

   ..Lyons/Hart.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   48070503 48770475 49030383 49050203 49030127 48680100
               48240084 47750082 47020108 46570148 46380200 46120322
               46090367 46120395 46400439 48070503