Mesoscale Discussion 1152 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into parts of northwest Texas and western Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 032005Z - 032230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell development appears possible by 5-6 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging wind gusts and potential for a tornado. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture is maximized in a narrow corridor along the modifying trailing flank of outflow from morning convection, near a sharpening dryline. This includes surface dew points near 70F, which appear to be contributing to very large mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence of steep lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting eastward across the southern Great Plains. Westerly deep-layer mean flow is rather modest (on the order of 20-25 kt), but pronounced veering of wind fields with height is contributing to sufficient shear for organized convection, including supercells. Although the primary mid-level perturbation has progressed to the east of the region flow, trailing flow across and east of the Texas Panhandle remains broadly cyclonic. At least attempts at isolated thunderstorm development appear underway beneath this regime to the north of Gage OK. Aided by weak low/mid-level warm advection along and east of the dryline, and the approach of convective temperatures, the initiation of additional widely scattered storms appears possible by 22-23Z. Given the environment, storms will tend to be slow moving, with stronger cells tending to take on a southward propagation, posing a risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and at least some risk for a tornado. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 36330092 36519938 35169961 34439889 33589846 33209969 34570067 35280088 36330092