Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1152

   Mesoscale Discussion 1152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1140 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 160440Z - 160645Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated hail and gusty winds may occur with thunderstorms
   over the next couple of hours, but watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...A modest strengthening of the low-level jet this
   evening per recent VWPs from KDDC has encouraged isolated convection
   to develop along/near a weak surface trough/wind shift across parts
   of western KS. While the 00Z DDC observed sounding showed minimal
   instability, a modest increase in low-level moisture has occurred
   over the past few hours per recent mesoanalysis estimates. This is
   supporting up to 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across a small portion of
   western KS. Around 20-30 kt of southerly low-level flow veers
   strongly and increases with height through mid/upper levels, which
   is aiding strong deep-layer shear of 40-50+ kt. One updraft has
   matured into a supercell across far southwest KS, and should
   continue to pose an isolated large hail threat in the near term.
   Other cells farther east may also attempt to strengthen, but weaker
   instability with eastward extent may tend to limit the number of
   stronger cells that can mature. Regardless, some hail and gusty wind
   threat will likely continue for the next couple of hours. But, the
   overall limited spatial/temporal extent of the severe threat tonight
   is expected to remain too isolated for watch issuance.

   ..Gleason.. 06/16/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   37980200 38530109 38840028 38639994 38129983 37550050
               37160114 37180197 37980200 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN