Mesoscale Discussion 1152
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0305 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024
Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into parts of northwest
Texas and western Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 032005Z - 032230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell development appears
possible by 5-6 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail in
excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging wind gusts and
potential for a tornado.
DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture is maximized in a narrow
corridor along the modifying trailing flank of outflow from morning
convection, near a sharpening dryline. This includes surface dew
points near 70F, which appear to be contributing to very large
mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence of steep
lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting
eastward across the southern Great Plains.
Westerly deep-layer mean flow is rather modest (on the order of
20-25 kt), but pronounced veering of wind fields with height is
contributing to sufficient shear for organized convection, including
supercells.
Although the primary mid-level perturbation has progressed to the
east of the region flow, trailing flow across and east of the Texas
Panhandle remains broadly cyclonic. At least attempts at isolated
thunderstorm development appear underway beneath this regime to the
north of Gage OK. Aided by weak low/mid-level warm advection along
and east of the dryline, and the approach of convective
temperatures, the initiation of additional widely scattered storms
appears possible by 22-23Z.
Given the environment, storms will tend to be slow moving, with
stronger cells tending to take on a southward propagation, posing a
risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and at least some
risk for a tornado.
..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 36330092 36519938 35169961 34439889 33589846 33209969
34570067 35280088 36330092