US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1152

   Mesoscale Discussion 1152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0305 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into parts of northwest
   Texas and western Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032005Z - 032230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered supercell development appears
   possible by 5-6 PM CDT, accompanied by a risk for large hail in
   excess of 2 inches in diameter, locally damaging wind gusts and
   potential for a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer moisture is maximized in a narrow
   corridor along the modifying trailing flank of outflow from morning
   convection, near a sharpening dryline.  This includes surface dew
   points near 70F, which appear to be contributing to very large
   mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg, in the presence of steep
   lapse rates associated with warm elevated mixed-layer air advecting
   eastward across the southern Great Plains.

   Westerly deep-layer mean flow is rather modest (on the order of
   20-25 kt), but pronounced veering of wind fields with height is
   contributing to sufficient shear for organized convection, including

   Although the primary mid-level perturbation has progressed to the
   east of the region flow, trailing flow across and east of the Texas
   Panhandle remains broadly cyclonic.  At least attempts at isolated
   thunderstorm development appear underway beneath this regime to the
   north of Gage OK.  Aided by weak low/mid-level warm advection along
   and east of the dryline, and the approach of convective
   temperatures, the initiation of additional widely scattered storms 
   appears possible by 22-23Z. 

   Given the environment, storms will tend to be slow moving, with
   stronger cells tending to take on a southward propagation, posing a
   risk for large hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and at least some
   risk for a tornado.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36330092 36519938 35169961 34439889 33589846 33209969
               34570067 35280088 36330092 

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