Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1150

   Mesoscale Discussion 1150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

   Areas affected...eastern New Mexico...Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151934Z - 152130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms to increase in coverage through the
   afternoon/evening posing a marginal risk for wind and hail.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing in coverage along
   the high terrain in eastern New Mexico this afternoon. It is likely
   that activity will continue to develop in this region before
   clusters move off the high terrain and into portions of the Texas
   Panhandle through the late afternoon/evening. With a few more hours
   of additional heating, MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg should be available
   in the area across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle.
   Steep low to mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear around 30-35
   kts will support potential for a few instances of marginally severe
   hail with initial discrete cells and potential for damaging wind as
   clustering occurs into the evening. Overall, coverage of a more
   organized severe threat appears low and as such a watch is unlikely
   at this time.

   ..Thornton/Mosier.. 06/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33080578 34350547 35430548 36310538 36950460 37020371
               36750291 36130245 34220233 33130293 32410522 32560565
               33080578 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN