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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1150

Mesoscale Discussion 1150
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1150
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern
   Texas....west central and southwestern Arkansas....northwestern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 031756Z - 032030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The evolution of an ongoing eastward/southeastward moving
   cluster of storms remains uncertain in the near term, but
   thunderstorm development with increasing risk for severe hail and
   wind is possible through 2-4 PM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...An initial intensification of thunderstorm development
   across the Muskogee OK vicinity appeared focused near an area of
   enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb), but
   has become better sustained southward along strengthening convective
   outflow into areas to the east of McAlester.  This activity is
   embedded within modest (20-30) westerly deep-layer mean flow, but
   downward mixing of northwesterly rear inflow is contributing to
   southeastward propagation of the cold pool toward the Ark-La-Tex
   vicinity, where stronger boundary-destabilization is currently

   Northeast of De Queen AR into the Russellville AR vicinity the
   environment is still in the process of recovering from prior
   convection, while warming elevated mixed-layer air continues to
   advect northeastward into/across the Red River Valley and Ark-La-Tex
   vicinity.  So, subsequent evolution of convection remains uncertain.
    However, a corridor of continuing intensifying thunderstorm
   development appears possible along the northeastern periphery of the
   more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air into the peak heating
   hours.  If this occurs, it would likely be accompanied by increasing
   potential for strong to severe surface gusts in the presence of
   moderate to strong shear (largely due to veering winds with height)
   and strong convective instability.  

   Discrete storm development near/just ahead of the southeastward
   advancing cold pool also appears possible, and would probably be
   accompanied by a risk for large hail as well.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34139628 34439532 34809463 35379376 35059296 33219356
               32749489 33309609 34139628 

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