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Mesoscale Discussion 1150 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Oklahoma...northeastern Texas....west central and southwestern Arkansas....northwestern Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 031756Z - 032030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The evolution of an ongoing eastward/southeastward moving cluster of storms remains uncertain in the near term, but thunderstorm development with increasing risk for severe hail and wind is possible through 2-4 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...An initial intensification of thunderstorm development across the Muskogee OK vicinity appeared focused near an area of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection (around 700 mb), but has become better sustained southward along strengthening convective outflow into areas to the east of McAlester. This activity is embedded within modest (20-30) westerly deep-layer mean flow, but downward mixing of northwesterly rear inflow is contributing to southeastward propagation of the cold pool toward the Ark-La-Tex vicinity, where stronger boundary-destabilization is currently focused. Northeast of De Queen AR into the Russellville AR vicinity the environment is still in the process of recovering from prior convection, while warming elevated mixed-layer air continues to advect northeastward into/across the Red River Valley and Ark-La-Tex vicinity. So, subsequent evolution of convection remains uncertain. However, a corridor of continuing intensifying thunderstorm development appears possible along the northeastern periphery of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air into the peak heating hours. If this occurs, it would likely be accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts in the presence of moderate to strong shear (largely due to veering winds with height) and strong convective instability. Discrete storm development near/just ahead of the southeastward advancing cold pool also appears possible, and would probably be accompanied by a risk for large hail as well. ..Kerr/Smith.. 06/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN... LAT...LON 34139628 34439532 34809463 35379376 35059296 33219356 32749489 33309609 34139628 |
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