Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1148

   Mesoscale Discussion 1148
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0856 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid Atlantic/southwest New
   England

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 150156Z - 150400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop late this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Along the eastern periphery of an extensive
   precipitation shield, a strong storm has recently developed to the
   northwest of Albany. The 00Z ALY sounding and the recent VWP from
   KENX depict a very favorable wind profile for organized convection,
   with favorable low-level veering and moderate to strong low/midlevel
   flow. However, very weak buoyancy was present on the 00Z ALY
   sounding. While some low-level moistening may occur through late
   evening, the nocturnally cooling boundary layer may hamper any
   substantial destabilization. 

   A low-level warm-advection regime associated with an approaching
   mid/upper-level shortwave trough will help to sustain convection
   through late evening. Updraft strength may continue to be hampered
   by weak instability, but any stronger sustained cells could be
   accompanied by locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado, given
   the favorable wind profile. Due to the very weak instability, watch
   issuance is currently considered unlikely, though trends will
   continue to be monitored for any uptick in destabilization and storm
   organization.

   ..Dean/Gleason.. 06/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...

   LAT...LON   39857431 42157421 42557488 43147382 43377311 43257275
               42057291 41237319 40477354 39787393 39857431 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH