Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1147

   Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 030800Z - 030930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is
   expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across
   southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards
   northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will
   be considered as it approaches.

   DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across
   southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and
   MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind
   gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This
   QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy
   advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly
   low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph
   should become more numerous into daybreak.

   While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development
   spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with
   00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK.
   Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual
   outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780
               36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129
               37690139 38280065