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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1147

Mesoscale Discussion 1147
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CDT Mon Jun 03 2024

   Areas affected...Southwest KS to northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383...

   Valid 030800Z - 030930Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 383

   SUMMARY...Increasing potential for strong to severe wind gusts is
   expected through dawn as a developing QLCS intensifies across
   southwest Kansas. It appears this should eventually track towards
   northwest Oklahoma and an additional severe thunderstorm watch will
   be considered as it approaches.

   DISCUSSION...A 150-km long developing QLCS is ongoing across
   southwest KS. While it is initially rooted from elevated parcels and
   MRMS MESH cores have flirted around 1 inch, strong surface wind
   gusts have been observed (up to 55 mph at the Ulysses AWOS). This
   QLCS should intensify as it impinges on increasing buoyancy
   advecting across the Panhandles amid a 45-50 kt south-southwesterly
   low-level jet per Amarillo VWP data. Surface wind gusts of 55-70 mph
   should become more numerous into daybreak.

   While the bulk of 00Z CAM guidance indicated MCS development
   spreading more easterly across southern KS, the 06Z HRRR along with
   00Z NSSL-MPAS suggest a more southeasterly track into northwest OK.
   Given the placement of both the MLCAPE/MUCAPE gradient and residual
   outflows from prior MCSs, this scenario appears more likely.

   ..Grams/Thompson.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   38280065 38310006 37739874 37329808 36939772 36579780
               36339802 36149857 36089920 36309981 36880080 37330129
               37690139 38280065 

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