US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1147

Published Date and Time: 2026-06-14 21:28:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 1147
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the Mid Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335...337...

   Valid 150125Z - 150330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 335, 337
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for strong to locally severe storms will continue
   into late evening. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a brief tornado
   all remain possible.

   DISCUSSION...An increase in semi-discrete storms has recently been
   noted from southeast PA into MD and northern VA, with a supercell
   ongoing as of 0115Z south of Lancaster, PA. The 00Z IAD sounding
   depicted 45 kt of effective shear and MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg,
   which will continue to support supercell potential with the
   strongest storms through the evening. Damaging wind, isolated hail,
   and perhaps a brief tornado could accompany any sustained supercell.
   This developing cluster of storms may eventually spread into parts
   of DE and NJ with a continued severe risk. 

   Farther west, a line of storms associated with a cold front is
   moving eastward across central PA, with occasional wind-damage
   reports and observed gusts of generally 50-60 mph. This line may
   continue to pose a threat of wind damage in the short term as it
   moves eastward, though some continued weakening is expected with
   time later through the evening.

   ..Dean.. 06/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   40687422 38097549 38657612 39047701 39727785 40097764
               40507742 40827714 41397672 42117596 42107531 42127468
               41617425 40687422 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



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