Mesoscale Discussion 1146
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024
Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Southwest Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 030449Z - 030715Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop and increase across parts of
southwest Kansas over the next 2 to 3 hours. Large hail will be the
primary threat, although isolated strong gusts could also occur. A
watch may be needed across parts of the region later tonight, if a
cluster can become organized.
DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a small cluster of strong
thunderstorms has developed over southeast Colorado. This cluster is
located along an axis of moderate instability, where MUCAPE is
between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. The activity is detached from the
stronger instability across the Texas Panhandle, and is elevated in
nature. Short-term model forecasts suggest that convective coverage
will increase across southwest Kansas, especially after 06Z. RAP
forecast soundings for this time in southwest Kansas have MUCAPE in
the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9
C/km, and moderate effective shear. This could be enough for a large
hail threat with the stronger cores, with the threat likely
maximizing during the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.
..Broyles/Hart.. 06/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...
LAT...LON 37019968 36970062 36990148 37210207 37970262 38490286
38820248 38770130 37969874 37419834 37039847 37019968