US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1146

   Mesoscale Discussion 1146
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1149 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Southwest Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 030449Z - 030715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe threat may develop and increase across parts of
   southwest Kansas over the next 2 to 3 hours. Large hail will be the
   primary threat, although isolated strong gusts could also occur. A
   watch may be needed across parts of the region later tonight, if a
   cluster can become organized.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last hour, a small cluster of strong
   thunderstorms has developed over southeast Colorado. This cluster is
   located along an axis of moderate instability, where MUCAPE is
   between 1000 and 2000 J/kg. The activity is detached from the
   stronger instability across the Texas Panhandle, and is elevated in
   nature. Short-term model forecasts suggest that convective coverage
   will increase across southwest Kansas, especially after 06Z. RAP
   forecast soundings for this time in southwest Kansas have MUCAPE in
   the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9
   C/km, and moderate effective shear. This could be enough for a large
   hail threat with the stronger cores, with the threat likely
   maximizing during the 08Z to 12Z timeframe.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37019968 36970062 36990148 37210207 37970262 38490286
               38820248 38770130 37969874 37419834 37039847 37019968 

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