Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1145

   Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0454 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of western and central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 336...

   Valid 142154Z - 142330Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 336 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell tornado risk will persist for another few hours.
   A couple tornadoes and damaging winds are also possible with the
   approaching squall line from the west.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from CCX shows a few discrete
   supercells evolving across western and central PA ahead of a cold
   front and related squall line. The CCX VWP is sampling a 30-40 kt
   low-level jet, which is yielding a clockwise-curved low-level
   hodograph with ample streamwise vorticity for RM supercells (320
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH). This wind profile coupled with a warm/moist PBL
   (middle/upper 60s dewpoints) will continue to support a few discrete
   supercell structures capable of producing a couple of tornadoes. The
   supercell tornado risk will generally be maximized for the next few
   hours (through around 01Z), before the core of the low-level jet
   translates northward.  

   Embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts will also be possible
   with the northeast/southwest-oriented squall line as it advances
   eastward across western/central PA, given the aforementioned
   favorable downstream environment.

   ..Weinman.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ...

   LAT...LON   39867878 39847954 40058008 40378029 40708032 41088004
               41667923 41917873 41927762 41817729 41567708 40897727
               40317783 39867878 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN