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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1145

Mesoscale Discussion 1145
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1145
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...East Texas...Central and Northern Louisiana...Far
   Southern Arkansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380...

   Valid 030422Z - 030615Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 380

   SUMMARY...An isolated wind-damage threat should continue for another
   hour or two across parts of east Texas and central to northern
   Louisiana. The threat is expected to be too marginal for watch
   issuance downstream from the current watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a linear MCS from
   parts of the east Texas into western and northern Louisiana. RAP
   analysis has moderate instability located ahead of the line across
   parts of the lower Mississippi Valley, where MLCAPE is estimated to
   be in the 15000 to 2500 J/kg range. This, along with surface
   dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F, should be sufficient for
   isolated damaging wind gusts. However, weakening instability ahead
   of the line should continue to result in a downtrend concerning
   convective intensity.

   ..Broyles.. 06/03/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32659171 33189197 33369239 33249285 32519296 32129309
               31939341 31809409 31859477 31669526 31059518 30849465
               30809348 31049244 31399200 31909176 32659171 

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