Mesoscale Discussion 1137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 PM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024 Areas affected...Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles...Western Oklahoma...Northwest Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 374... Valid 022337Z - 030130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 374 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat across the central Texas Panhandle is expected to be maintained over the next few hours. The severe threat will gradually move eastward, and the tornado threat is expected to increase over the next 1 to 2 hours. As the storms approach the eastern edge of Tornado Watch 374, a new watch may need to be issued later this evening. DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo, TX shows several supercells located near a north-to-south oriented dryline across the central Texas Panhandle. To the east of the dryline, the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range. The storms will continue to move eastward into the stronger instability, and the severe threat is expected to be maintained. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Amarillo has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with a substantial amount of directional shear in the lowest 3 km. This is resulting in 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 300 m2/s2, suggesting that the more intense supercells could develop a tornado threat. The tornado threat will likely become maximized in the 00Z to 02Z timeframe in the east-central Texas Panhandle and southward to areas northeast of Lubbock, as the low-level jet strengthens. If a supercell can turn to the right of the mean flow and become dominant, then a tornado or two will be likely. In addition, RAP forecast soundings at Amarillo have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. This will support a large hail threat with supercells, and the more vigorous updrafts could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Severe wind gusts will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 06/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA... LAT...LON 33050113 33040046 33249980 33689939 35089937 35979938 36539956 36900002 36920084 36830133 36410182 35620200 34880214 33960210 33310180 33050113