Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1137

   Mesoscale Discussion 1137
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1250 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Southeast into western North
   Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141750Z - 141945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to damaging wind gusts are possible
   through this afternoon/evening with widely scattered thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts surface lee troughing
   downstream of the Appalachian Mountains, with a weak surface low
   analyzed in western North Carolina. Widely scattered convection has
   developed within this lee troughing through early afternoon, with
   the greatest coverage noted close to the weak low in the NC/SC/GA
   border vicinity. This activity is likely to persist eastward through
   the afternoon within a warm, humid air mass (sampled by the 12z FFC
   observed sounding). Despite surface dewpoints near 70 F, relatively
   warm mid-level temperatures and modestly more well-mixed boundary
   layer profiles inland are supporting only weak to moderate buoyancy,
   with 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE indicated by objective analysis. Weak
   deep-layer flow and effective shear across the region will favor an
   outflow-dominant storm mode, with some potential for an occasionally
   more well-organized cluster or two. The main threat with this
   activity will be strong to isolated damaging wind gusts given high
   PWAT contents and steep low-level lapse rates. Given the expectation
   for storm longevity/organization and severe magnitude to remain
   limited, watch issuance is unlikely.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CHS...CAE...GSP...JAX...MRX...FFC...
   TAE...

   LAT...LON   36378159 36468127 36488100 36418070 36288047 35748035
               35178031 34108063 32698176 31768230 31408249 31158274
               31058321 31128417 31368458 31578468 32268468 32818468
               33708481 34408490 34888492 35138493 35378486 35508472
               35598435 35608378 35528298 35728232 36108184 36378159 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH