Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1124

   Mesoscale Discussion 1124
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1040 AM CDT Sun Jun 02 2024

   Areas affected...The Red River vicinity from Southwest Oklahoma to
   north Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 021540Z - 021715Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A cluster of storms near the Red River may strengthen
   through early afternoon with a threat for severe wind/hail. Severe
   coverage/intensity remains uncertain, but will be monitored for
   watch consideration if severe magnitude/coverage is greater than
   currently anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has persisted through the morning
   from the Texas Panhandle to southwest Oklahoma. Area VWPs show a
   moderate, but sustained low-level jet which has likely maintained
   storms thus far. Heating has occurred south of this cluster with SPC
   mesoanalysis indicating CINH has eroded. Therefore, this cluster may
   continue through the day with continued development/intensification
   as it drifts southeast. Deep-layer shear is relatively weak (per
   area VWPs) which may limit the overall severe weather potential.
   However, the strong instability (2500 J/kg MLCAPE and increasing)
   should result in at least some large hail/severe wind threat into
   the early afternoon.

   ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   34879990 35069905 34189728 33439687 32689724 33069883
               33689998 34620010 34879990