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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1119

Mesoscale Discussion 1119
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1119
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0800 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...portions of western Nebraska and Kansas into
   eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366...369...

   Valid 020100Z - 020230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 366, 369

   SUMMARY...The severe risk continues. Several dominant clusters
   appear to be emerging and should present the most severe risk into
   this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Across WW 366 and 369, widely scattered thunderstorms
   have gradually coalesced into 2 more dominant clusters over the last
   couple of hours. This trend will likely continue into this evening
   as diurnal heating weakens and cold pool depth increases. The
   northern most cluster over CO and NE will likely continue to pose a
   risk for hail and damaging winds with several more supercellular
   elements noted on radar. However, eventual upscale growth appears
   likely given moderate to large MLCAPE and some low-level warm
   advection increases expected with the onset of the nocturnal LLJ. A
   transition to more damaging wind potential appears likely over the
   next few hours as storms should eventually grow upscale.

   The southern cluster over parts of KS and the OK Panhandle has shown
   less organization thus far owing to weaker buoyancy and a more
   multi-cell mode. Still, some more organized elements may appear over
   the next few hours as the cold pool continues to deepen and move
   southeast. Damaging winds appear to be the most likely threat as the
   eventual cluster should propagate southeastward into western OK and
   the TX Panhandle, though some hail still appears possible.

   ..Lyons.. 06/02/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36520072 36460239 36540272 37110277 37470276 39420270
               40900310 41740347 42340342 42670285 42780245 42450168
               41680056 38909966 37419932 37129929 36999971 36520072 

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