Mesoscale Discussion 1114 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026 Areas affected...Far northeast New Mexico...the northern Texas Panhandle...far northwest Oklahoma...and far southern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323... Valid 130352Z - 130545Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 323 continues. SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds continues across portions of far northeast New Mexico into the northern Texas Panhandle and adjacent portions of northwest Oklahoma and far southern Kansas. However, some weakening trend has been noted, suggesting swaths of severe winds are becoming more localized. DISCUSSION...A compact, but organized, MCS continues across the far northern TX/OK Panhandles per regional radar imagery. Although the MCS produced a wind gust of 96 mph at the Eva, OK Mesonet site at around 9:10 CDT, more recent surface observations have largely been sampling gusts between 40-55 mph. Additionally, a pronounced outflow boundary is noted surging south towards Amarillo, TX and GOES IR imagery shows steadily warming cloud-top temperatures. These trends all point towards a weakening trend over the past 45 minutes. Further southwest, a less organized segment of the crossing the NM/TX border has similarly produced occasional gusts between 60-65 mph, but has more recently produced a surging outflow. Based on recent storm tracks, the leading edge of the MCS is forecast to reach the eastern bounds of WW 323 within the next two hours. The recent weakening trend casts some uncertainty on the longevity of the severe threat downstream beyond WW 323; however, surface observations reveal a plume of low 70s dewpoints oriented from central to northwest OK. This plume of higher theta-e air is supporting MLCAPE values on the order of 3000 J/kg that could support some degree of re-intensification over the next couple of hours. Furthermore, the leading section of the line along the OK/TX Panhandle border and a section of the line near Dumas, TX are both favorably oriented with a 30-35 knot deep-layer shear vector, which should continue to promote organization of these segments. Consequently, confidence in the severe wind threat is highest downstream into northwest OK and possibly north of the Amarillo region for the next couple of hours. ..Moore.. 06/13/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...ABQ... LAT...LON 35880407 36300197 36430145 36610120 36870109 37080112 37170112 37330097 37549951 37489914 37299899 36649897 36249908 35919937 35759970 35530029 35390154 35360306 35400363 35500390 35580407 35710417 35880407 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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