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Mesoscale Discussion 1111 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1111 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024 Areas affected...northeast Colorado...eastern Wyoming...Southwest South Dakota...western Nebraska...and far northwest Kansas. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 011908Z - 012045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Supercells capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Instability is increasing across northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South Dakota. A dryline extends from near Cheyenne, WY and across across northeast Colorado where deeper cumulus have started to develop. Strong heating west of this dryline has resulted in a mostly uncapped environment. Northeast of this dryline, the environment remains capped with cooler temperatures, but greater low-level moisture streaming north. Additional thunderstorms are starting to develop across southwest South Dakota in the vicinity of a northward moving warm front. Thunderstorms have already started to develop across the higher terrain in northeast Colorado. Expect these storms to strengthen through the afternoon as they encounter increasing instability with eastward extent. Additional storms may form along the dryline, particularly where convergence is maximized across southeast Wyoming and into Weld County, Colorado. Effective shear is around 35 to 40 knots per regional VWPs which will support supercells. Large hail, some 2+ inches, will be the primary threat with some severe wind gusts also possible. ..Bentley/Smith.. 06/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 39280185 39040305 38920424 38980466 39610507 40130535 40930520 42690503 43810499 44450398 44480286 44280176 43210063 40680032 39630045 39280185 |
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