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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1108

Mesoscale Discussion 1108
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0132 PM CDT Sat Jun 01 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast Texas and far southwest

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365...

   Valid 011832Z - 012030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 365

   SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds remain
   possible across portions of southeast Texas and far southwest
   Louisiana this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KHGX/KLCH shows loosely
   organized clusters of convection (with weak embedded rotation)
   spreading slowly northward along a related outflow boundary across
   southeast TX and far southwest LA this afternoon. Ahead/north of the
   outflow, strong heating/destabilization of a very moist boundary
   layer (middle/upper 70s dewpoints) should support embedded strong
   updrafts, despite a somewhat anafrontal evolution of the convection.
   Additionally, VWP depicts around 30-40 kt of 0-6 km shear, and this
   may increase to around 50 kt as a subtle midlevel speed max
   (associated with remnant MCV to the northwest) continues
   east-southeastward. As a result, loosely organized clusters of
   storms (with transient/embedded supercell structures) will be
   capable of producing locally damaging winds (60-70 mph) and isolated
   large hail (1.0-1.75 inches) through the afternoon.

   ..Weinman.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30079284 29959455 29829488 29839551 30049591 30329579
               30679532 30999458 31109354 30999302 30759281 30209266

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