Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1107

   Mesoscale Discussion 1107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

   Areas affected...much of Virginia...parts of West
   Virginia...Maryland...northern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 121757Z - 121900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered storms capable of damaging wind gusts are
   expected to develop through the afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A surface trough is gradually deepening across MD/VA/NC
   with strong heating resulting in very steep low-level lapse rates.
   Modest northwest flow aloft exists into the area, which may aid in
   steering storms in a southeastward direction. Visible imagery shows
   a moist air mass across the entire area and extending west across
   the higher terrain as well, suggesting minimal drying/downslope
   effects. 

   In the next couple hours, storms may form in the agitated CU area
   currently seen over northern into northwest VA. Several models
   depict a possible cluster of storms moving southeastward later
   today, with a corridor of damaging winds possible.

   Other storms are likely to develop over WV and southward across the
   Appalachians. Given the weak northwest winds aloft, any such
   activity may move into the lower terrain late in the day. Several
   models suggest any such convection and/or outflows may instigate new
   development during the later afternoon into much of central VA and
   perhaps northern NC.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/12/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   37258177 37808116 38787980 38987924 39137802 39027702
               38927678 38377634 37847641 37517710 36987785 36397880
               36018174 36018182 36368227 36798229 37258177 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN