Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1101

   Mesoscale Discussion 1101
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0924 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...east-central and parts of southeastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361...

   Valid 010224Z - 010400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of severe storms will likely remain
   capable of damaging hail (some greater than 2 inches) and severe
   wind gusts into this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0215 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a loose
   cluster of strong to severe storms ongoing across east-central CO.
   Over the last 2 hours, several reports of severe hail have occurred
   with these storms. Moderate instability and deep-layer shear remain
   in place ahead of the cluster suggesting a continued risk for strong
   updrafts capable of severe hail, some of which could be greater than
   2 inches. Recent radar trends and surface observations also suggest
   stronger cold pool development is underway, which may eventually
   support the development of a small MCS. Along with the risk for
   hail, damaging wind potential may increase as storms begin to
   propagate east/southeast over the next few hours. However, with the
   onset of nocturnal cooling and air mass overturning from previous
   convection, it remains unclear how far south and east the severe
   threat will persist.

   ..Lyons.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37720206 37630219 37610244 37700347 37830380 38000412
               38220440 38470449 38990446 39280428 39340370 39330274
               39070205 37960203 37720206