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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1100

Mesoscale Discussion 1100
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1100
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0828 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360...

   Valid 010128Z - 010330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 360

   SUMMARY...A potential for severe wind gusts and isolated large hail
   will likely continue this evening, as a cluster or line of strong to
   severe thunderstorms moves southeastward across west Texas. New
   watch issuance may be needed to the southeast of WW 360 later this

   DISCUSSION...The latest hi-resolution radar imagery from Amarillo
   and Lubbock shows a relatively large cluster of strong to severe
   storms currently straddling the New Mexico-Texas state-line. This
   cluster is expected to become more organized as it moves
   southeastward toward an axis of strong instability, currently
   located over the eastern part of the Caprock. The RAP is estimating
   MLCAPE within this corridor in the 2000 to 3000 J/kg range. In
   addition, RAP forecast soundings across west Texas have 0-6 km shear
   in the 35 to 40 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7.5
   C/km. This environment should be favorable for isolated supercells
   capable of large hail. Although the cells are primarily discrete,
   some short-term solutions suggest that a transition to linear mode
   will be possible. If this were to happen, the wind-damage threat
   would likely increase, as the storms move southeastward into the
   stronger instability.

   ..Broyles.. 06/01/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   33310289 32720200 32690120 32850079 33190053 33630045
               34170076 34510135 34980244 35140320 34840353 34150356
               33730340 33310289 

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