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Mesoscale Discussion 1098 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361... Valid 312344Z - 010115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 361 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW361 with the risk of damaging winds and hail. Storm coverage could increase this evening though storm evolution is uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2330, UTC regional observations showed widely scattered clusters of strong to occasional severe storms ongoing across parts of eastern/southeastern CO. Thus far, severe storm coverage has remained somewhat limited within a modifying post-frontal upslope flow regime. Still the environment remains broadly favorable for damaging gusts and hail with ~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40-50 kt of effective shear over much of the watch areas. Later this evening into tonight, additional storm development will remain possible along the I-25 corridor. Numerous weak updrafts are present over the mountains and eastern foothills of the Rockies. Recent hi-res guidance and some observational trend suggest a few of these updrafts may eventually move east and mature with the onset of additional forcing from the nocturnal low-level jet. While conditional, severe storm coverage may increase in the next couple of hours and into the early overnight within the aforementioned favorable environment. Should this occur, hail and damaging winds appear likely, especially over northern and central portions of WW361. However, significant uncertainty in storm evolution remains. ..Lyons.. 05/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 37000383 36980514 38200489 39520454 39920399 40140366 40180334 40100304 39860270 39550225 39450217 38530205 37090205 37010273 37000383 |
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