Mesoscale Discussion 1096
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024
Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into parts of west/central TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 312034Z - 312200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible into early
evening.
DISCUSSION...An isolated strong storm has recently developed over
Coleman County, TX, near a remnant outflow boundary, with other
deepening cumulus noted across Pecos and Brewster Counties. With
large-scale forcing expected to generally remain weak across the
region, storm coverage into the early evening remains uncertain.
However, at least isolated development may continue along the
outflow boundary, and also in the region of deeper heating/mixing
farther to the southwest.
With strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear in place,
the environment favors supercell potential, with an attendant threat
of very large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado.
Watch issuance is possible if an uptick in severe storm coverage
appears imminent.
..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 30530318 31130344 32880351 33460270 33080057 31819893
31239819 31079823 30709862 30889913 31109968 31120046
30650099 30010185 29770251 30020285 30530318