US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1096

   Mesoscale Discussion 1096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0334 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...extreme southeast NM into parts of west/central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 312034Z - 312200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storm development is possible into early

   DISCUSSION...An isolated strong storm has recently developed over
   Coleman County, TX, near a remnant outflow boundary, with other
   deepening cumulus noted across Pecos and Brewster Counties. With
   large-scale forcing expected to generally remain weak across the
   region, storm coverage into the early evening remains uncertain.
   However, at least isolated development may continue along the
   outflow boundary, and also in the region of deeper heating/mixing
   farther to the southwest. 

   With strong instability and sufficient deep-layer shear in place,
   the environment favors supercell potential, with an attendant threat
   of very large hail, locally damaging wind, and possibly a tornado.
   Watch issuance is possible if an uptick in severe storm coverage
   appears imminent.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/31/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   30530318 31130344 32880351 33460270 33080057 31819893
               31239819 31079823 30709862 30889913 31109968 31120046
               30650099 30010185 29770251 30020285 30530318 

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