Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1096

   Mesoscale Discussion 1096
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0509 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 112209Z - 120045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds (50-65
   mph) will spread eastward over the next few hours. A watch will
   likely be issued in the next hour or so.

   DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented broken band of thunderstorms is
   tracking eastward across central PA, southern NY, and eastern WV at
   around 30-35 kt. These storms have a history of producing scattered
   damaging wind gusts and measured gusts upwards of 45 mph. As a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough continues eastward across
   western/central PA/NY, this band of storms should progress eastward
   into eastern PA and vicinity by around 01Z. The downstream air mass
   is characterized by lower 90s temperatures amid lower 70s dewpoints
   and steep low-level lapse rates. This environment will remain
   favorable for damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph) into this evening,
   especially given the established line of storms and 35-kt
   unidirectional flow in the lowest 1 km (sampled by the CCX VWP). A
   watch will likely be issued for parts of the area in the next hour
   or so.

   ..Weinman/Smith.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38687631 39227640 40347630 41077581 41637525 41797473
               41637420 41337383 40737384 39957405 39047465 38447524
               38357558 38357558 38427597 38687631 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN