Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1092

   Mesoscale Discussion 1092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...

   Valid 311045Z - 311215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind threat should persist
   across southeast Texas as a QLCS shifts southeastward towards the
   Middle to Upper Texas Gulf Coast.

   DISCUSSION...Slowing forward speed to around 35-40 kts, along with
   gradually warming cloud tops suggests the arcing QLCS largely
   remains strong to marginally severe. Surface gusts of 45-60 mph have
   been common along the eastern two-thirds of the QLCS arc. Recent
   HRRR runs insist on a potential secondary surge towards the Middle
   to Upper TX Gulf Coast before it moves offshore. It is plausible
   that this could occur given the presence of a relatively pronounced
   MLCAPE gradient from a plume of large buoyancy still over south TX.
   But recent observational trends suggest this scenario may becoming
   less likely.

   ..Grams.. 05/31/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   31619571 31619519 31639491 30989436 30489440 29499515
               29159597 29119648 29119695 29469780 29929792 30119772
               30279703 30589629 31619571