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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1092

Mesoscale Discussion 1092
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1092
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358...359...

   Valid 311045Z - 311215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 358, 359

   SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind threat should persist
   across southeast Texas as a QLCS shifts southeastward towards the
   Middle to Upper Texas Gulf Coast.

   DISCUSSION...Slowing forward speed to around 35-40 kts, along with
   gradually warming cloud tops suggests the arcing QLCS largely
   remains strong to marginally severe. Surface gusts of 45-60 mph have
   been common along the eastern two-thirds of the QLCS arc. Recent
   HRRR runs insist on a potential secondary surge towards the Middle
   to Upper TX Gulf Coast before it moves offshore. It is plausible
   that this could occur given the presence of a relatively pronounced
   MLCAPE gradient from a plume of large buoyancy still over south TX.
   But recent observational trends suggest this scenario may becoming
   less likely.

   ..Grams.. 05/31/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31619571 31619519 31639491 30989436 30489440 29499515
               29159597 29119648 29119695 29469780 29929792 30119772
               30279703 30589629 31619571 

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