Mesoscale Discussion 1086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0953 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Areas affected...eastern Iowa into northwest Illiniois and northeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 311... Valid 111453Z - 111630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 311 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts remain likely across eastern Iowa, northwest Illinois, and northeast Missouri. A tornado risk may develop from northeast Missouri into west-central Illinois. DISCUSSION...An MCS with a history of producing measured severe wind gusts continues to quickly move across eastern IA. Two main surges are evident within this north-south line, with the southeast IA portion currently stronger than the section moving into northeast IA. Meanwhile, a trailing portion of the MCS extends southwestward into northern MO, where backbuilding is occurring. It appears the environment farther east across IL and southern WI will need to undergo significant destabilization for this existing MCS to remain severe into the afternoon. 12Z soundings from DVN and ILX show a stabilized air mass from the overnight MCS, with GPS PWAT sensors indicating a deeper moisture gradient across central IL. However, visible satellite shows strong heating occurring ahead of the MCS, and modest southwest winds will allow for moisture to gradually return northward across IL and vicinity. Some tornado risk exists as well, especially along the southern/southeastern fringe of the MCS. Here, 0-1 km SRH will remain strongest, and the environment should become more favorable later in the day as the air mass become more volatile. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/11/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 39808969 39639044 39979227 40059298 40639244 40879182 41159148 41669130 42039116 42169119 42008980 41958974 41838906 41328882 40858895 39808969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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