Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1082

   Mesoscale Discussion 1082
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0439 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...Arklatex Region

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 302139Z - 302315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection will spread across the Arklatex region over the
   next few hours. Gusty winds along with marginally severe hail are
   expected. Some consideration is being given to a new watch
   immediately downstream of ww0353.

   DISCUSSION...Remnants of pre-dawn MCS that developed over the
   southern High Plains have propagated downstream into the Arklatex
   region. Diurnal heating and weak inhibition have contributed to
   renewed development along the leading edge of this long-lived MCS.
   Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s ahead of this
   activity across northern LA/southern AR which is contributing to
   MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2000 J/kg within a modestly sheared
   environment. Additionally, latest water-vapor imagery/model guidance
   suggest a weak short-wave trough is associated with this convection
   which should encourage further advancement downstream into an air
   mass that will support robust updrafts. Current thinking is
   marginally severe hail is possible along with gusty winds. Some
   consideration is being given to a new watch immediately downstream
   of ww0353.

   ..Darrow/Hart.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...

   LAT...LON   32779466 33179319 32719260 32209309 32199456 32779466