Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1081

   Mesoscale Discussion 1081
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0227 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...portions of northeastern Colorado and western into
   northern Nebraska and far southern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 301927Z - 302100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...At least isolated severe hail/wind gusts may accompany the
   stronger thunderstorms across portions of the central Plains as
   storm coverage increases into the afternoon. Given likely low severe
   coverage a WW issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway along a diffuse cold
   front that is meandering across northeast Colorado into eastern
   South Dakota. Storm coverage will increase through the afternoon
   since deep-layer ascent will increase as a mid-level trough grazes
   the central Plains to the north. Given the northward passage of the
   mid-level trough and associated stronger flow aloft, the more
   favorable deep-layer shear will lag the cold front, so the
   thunderstorms ahead of the front are not expected to become
   organized on a widespread basis (precluding a WW issuance at this
   time). However, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 60s
   F surface dewpoints will yield up to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots,
   suggesting that at least isolated instances of severe wind or hail
   may accompany the stronger storms. 19Z mesoanalysis also shows
   strong low-level vertical vorticity coinciding with over 125 J/kg of
   CAPE in the 0-3 km layer. As such, conditional potential exists for
   a landspout if a strong updraft can anchor to the cold front.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39410348 41460085 43619890 44559781 44069755 43219788
               42039863 40999938 40310071 39110268 39060333 39410348