US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1079

   Mesoscale Discussion 1079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024

   Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the
   Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far southeast Colorado...and far
   southwestern Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 301757Z - 302030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over portions of the
   southern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats,
   with some instances of hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and gusts
   exceeding 65 kts possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A
   WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours pending
   favorable convective trends.

   DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation across the southern High Plains
   continues to modify a post-convective airmss, with CU and attempts
   at convective initiation noted from Union County, NM to Oldham
   County, TX. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates that appreciable MLCINH
   remains across the warm sector. However, continued diurnal heating
   amid clearing skies should erode remaining CINH and support greater
   storm development and coverage as the afternoon progresses.
   Thunderstorm development is most likely along baroclinic boundaries
   currently positioned along the NM/CO/KS border areas, and over the
   western TX Panhandle. 

   By mid afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F in
   most locations as 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the
   southern High Plains, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. RAP
   forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level
   elongation and some curvature, but short segments in the mid to
   upper-levels, limiting effective bulk shear values to around 30-35
   kts. As such, multicells and transient supercells are the expected
   mode of convection. Given ample buoyancy and at least modest
   deep-layer shear, severe wind and hail still appear likely with the
   more organized, longer-lasting thunderstorms. If a more robust
   supercell structure could be realized, 2+ inch diameter hail could
   occur. With forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming
   potentially well-mixed to almost 700 mb, a 65+ kt gust cannot be
   ruled out. Finally, ample low-level vertical vorticity is present in
   far southeastern Colorado in the presence of a weak surface low. If
   a thunderstorm can traverse this environment without becoming
   quickly outflow dominant, a landspout or hybrid supercell tornado is

   A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours if greater
   thunderstorm coverage become apparent.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35910015 35270036 34990109 34960232 35130297 35790345
               36500391 37130385 37730329 38300213 38330111 38150057
               37610022 36950008 35910015 

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