Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1079

   Mesoscale Discussion 1079
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0824 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

   Areas affected...central to northeast Kansas into parts of northwest
   Missouri.

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 303...

   Valid 110124Z - 110300Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 303 continues.

   SUMMARY...A broken band of supercells will move eastward through the
   evening with a continued threat for all severe weather hazards.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells are ongoing from central Kansas into
   northeast Kansas this evening. The environment remains very
   favorable across this region with ~3000 J/kg MLCAPE and ~ 50 knots
   of effective shear on the 00Z TOP RAOB. In addition, a clockwise
   turned low-level hodograph will support a continued tornado threat
   with a STP around 2 to 2.5. Surface-based instability will lessen as
   the boundary layer cools this evening, but as the low-level jet
   strengthens, low-level shear will continue to increase. Therefore,
   some tornado threat will likely persist through the evening. Tornado
   watch 303 will need to be extended a few hours to address this
   threat. 

   Later this evening, the surface front that these storms developed
   along will move northward as a surface low deepens and moves
   northward across Kansas. As this occurs, ongoing supercells will
   likely become disconnected from the synoptic front and start to
   dissipate as CINH increases amid rising heights across the region.

   ..Bentley.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   38219838 39309710 40149535 40289430 39989369 39349435
               38489570 38179682 38129745 38219838 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN