Mesoscale Discussion 1079
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 PM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...far southeast Colorado...and far
southwestern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 301757Z - 302030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing over portions of the
southern High Plains. Severe wind and hail are the main threats,
with some instances of hail exceeding 2 inches in diameter and gusts
exceeding 65 kts possible. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out. A
WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours pending
favorable convective trends.
DISCUSSION...Adequate insolation across the southern High Plains
continues to modify a post-convective airmss, with CU and attempts
at convective initiation noted from Union County, NM to Oldham
County, TX. 17Z mesoanalysis indicates that appreciable MLCINH
remains across the warm sector. However, continued diurnal heating
amid clearing skies should erode remaining CINH and support greater
storm development and coverage as the afternoon progresses.
Thunderstorm development is most likely along baroclinic boundaries
currently positioned along the NM/CO/KS border areas, and over the
western TX Panhandle.
By mid afternoon, surface temperatures should warm into the 80s F in
most locations as 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreads the
southern High Plains, boosting MLCAPE to over 3000 J/kg. RAP
forecast soundings depict hodographs with modest low-level
elongation and some curvature, but short segments in the mid to
upper-levels, limiting effective bulk shear values to around 30-35
kts. As such, multicells and transient supercells are the expected
mode of convection. Given ample buoyancy and at least modest
deep-layer shear, severe wind and hail still appear likely with the
more organized, longer-lasting thunderstorms. If a more robust
supercell structure could be realized, 2+ inch diameter hail could
occur. With forecast soundings showing the boundary layer becoming
potentially well-mixed to almost 700 mb, a 65+ kt gust cannot be
ruled out. Finally, ample low-level vertical vorticity is present in
far southeastern Colorado in the presence of a weak surface low. If
a thunderstorm can traverse this environment without becoming
quickly outflow dominant, a landspout or hybrid supercell tornado is
possible.
A WW issuance may be needed in the next few hours if greater
thunderstorm coverage become apparent.
..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/30/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35910015 35270036 34990109 34960232 35130297 35790345
36500391 37130385 37730329 38300213 38330111 38150057
37610022 36950008 35910015