Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1068

   Mesoscale Discussion 1068
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

   Areas affected...southeast WY...western NE...eastern CO and far
   western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 292027Z - 292230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected into early
   evening. Damaging gusts and hail will be the main concerns with this
   activity. A severe thunderstorm watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are intensifying this afternoon away from
   higher terrain over the adjacent high Plains. Southeasterly
   low-level winds around 20-30 kt have allowed dewpoints to climb into
   the upper 40s to low 50s F. Strong heating and steep midlevel lapse
   rates are further supporting MLCAPE values up to 1500 J/kg. Vertical
   shear is expected to increase with eastward extent toward evening,
   and thunderstorm clusters may become better organized with time.
   Furthermore, a deeply mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud
   thermodynamic profiles will support strong downdrafts and
   thunderstorm gusts of 55-70 mph are expected. Additionally, very
   steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient vertical shear and
   instability for at least briefly robust updrafts may also support
   large hail. Some potential for a couple of landspouts also will
   exist into early evening across parts of eastern CO where backed
   low-level winds are present in an area of low-level convergence near
   a surface low/trough. 

   A severe thunderstorm watch is likely for portions of the MCD area.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/29/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   43560553 43470370 42970257 40860159 40480150 37450140
               37100186 37000231 37010349 37020417 39180451 42330499
               43560553