Mesoscale Discussion 1067
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026
Areas affected...Iowa...northern Missouri...northeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 101835Z - 102100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop by 20-21Z from
western/central Iowa into northeast Kansas, spreading across
southern Iowa into northern Missouri. Isolated strong tornadoes,
large hail and damaging winds will all be possible through evening.
DISCUSSION...Convection associated with a lead wave has left an
outflow boundary from central IA into northern MO, where
temperatures are cooler but dewpoints remain in the low 70 F. West
of there, a surface trough is deepening into eastern NE, western IA
and northern KS. This region lies beneath west/southwest flow aloft
on the order of 40-50 kt, south of the primary wave to the
northeast.
Visible imagery and surface observations indicate that substantial
destabilization is taking place ahead of the front, including the
residual outflow area. CU fields are already evident from western IA
into KS, and there is minimal capping. Persistent southwest
low-level winds with 35-40 kt at 850 mb and heating/boundary layer
mixing should easily recover the previously cooled outflow area,
where low-level shear may remain locally stronger. Low-level shear,
in general, will also increase between 21-00Z ahead of the
developing broken line of storms as pressures fall. Wind profiles
will favor supercells, with effective SRH increasing into the
200-300 m2/s2 range.
Given the lack of capping, 1-2 more hours of heating will support
storms near the cold front from central/southwest IA into northeast
KS. If storms can remain discrete, a few tornadoes appear likely.
Given relatively slow storm movement and HP supercell mode, strong
tornado potential may remain localized, along with mesocyclonic
significant wind gusts. Hail over 2.00" diameter is expected. The
high PWAT environment and lack of capping should support eventual
widespread coverage near the boundary with outflows and bowing
structures.
..Jewell.. 06/10/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39099730 39509712 39879673 40419595 40839551 41709496
42029429 42179288 41919243 41269218 40329236 39809280
39529329 39089448 38769584 38719718 39099730
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN
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