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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1066

Mesoscale Discussion 1066
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1066
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0125 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana...western North
   Dakota...eastern Wyoming...western South Dakota...extreme northwest

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 291825Z - 292030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase through the afternoon as
   storms developing along the immediate lee of the higher terrain and
   progress eastward. Severe wind and hail are the main threats. A WW
   issuance may be needed in the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are warming into the 80s F amid
   lower 50s F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 1000 J/kg as MLCINH
   continues to erode. MLCAPE should reach around 2000 J/kg in a few
   more hours, when upslope flow and upper-level support will promote
   more robust convective initiation. Given modest deep-layer shear,
   multicells and brief, transient supercells are expected to be the
   observed storm modes. Large hail and severe gusts would be the main
   threats with any of the stronger, longer-lasting storms. The
   coverage of storms and associated severe wind/hail may be great
   enough to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance within the
   next few hours.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/29/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   41050586 43080611 47800617 49090555 49080399 48070331
               45640282 43980284 42540341 41700415 41050586 

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