Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1064

   Mesoscale Discussion 1064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1109 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...northeastern Missouri...southwestern
   Wisconsin...and northwestern Illinois

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 101609Z - 101815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are currently moving northeastward
   through central Iowa and northeastern Missouri. These storms may
   gradually strengthen in the next couple of hours, posing a threat
   for wind gusts and small hail. A watch will likely be needed soon in
   the northern portion of the highlighted area.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of thunderstorm complexes are moving through
   central IA and northeastern MO this morning. A few 40+ kt gusts have
   been reported across central IA with the strongest cores. Per
   current mesoanalysis, they are located along the leading edge of a
   mid-level impulse propagating through IA in a zone of broad
   upper-level difluence. Modest heating amidst scattered cloud cover
   is yielding gradual warming into the low-/mid-80s F which --
   combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s F -- supports MLCAPE around
   1500 J/kg ahead of the storms. Bulk shear is around 25-30 kts,
   increasing to around 30-35 kts in the northern portion of the
   highlighted area.

   The general expectation is for these storms to gradually intensify
   as they move northeastward during the next couple of hours.
   Convective evolution remains uncertain; some high-resolution
   guidance depicts a consolidated cold pool and bowing system, while
   others depict more discrete through early afternoon. Regardless of
   mode, the background environment should support a gradually
   ramping-up threat for wind gusts and small hail. Watch issuance is
   likely in the short term in the delineated area to cover these
   threats.

   ..Flournoy/Mosier.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   40308978 39319127 39109248 39299281 40089239 40709192
               41359206 41939258 42239359 42869326 43229286 43469204
               42989031 41838962 40308978 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN