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Mesoscale Discussion 1064 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1064 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024 Areas affected...portions of extreme northern Wyoming into southern and central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 291815Z - 292045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts will increase as storm coverage becomes greater this afternoon. The severe gust threat should initially be sparse in southwestern MT early this afternoon, but should become more abundant as storms approach eastern MT. Convective trends are being monitored for the more robust severe-gust threat and associated need for a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Low-level lapse rates continue to steepen (i.e. the 7-8 C/km range) as diurnal heating continues to support boundary layer mixing. A pronounced mid-level trough is overspreading the northern Rockies and tracking eastward, resulting in deep-layer ascent and accompanying potential for increased thunderstorm coverage through the afternoon. As thunderstorms strengthen and overspread the deepening boundary layer, the steep low-level lapse rates will foster severe gust potential. Severe gusts should initially remain isolated over southwestern MT. However, as the storms gradually move eastward amid deeper moisture and higher instability (i.e. 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE), severe gusts could potentially become more common. Timing in a relatively greater uptick in potential severe wind gust production is not entirely certain. However, convective trends are being monitored to pinpoint when a greater-than-isolated severe gust threat may materialize, at which point a WW issuance may become necessary. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX... LAT...LON 45120619 44950650 44650785 44550966 44581072 44801119 45031145 46800973 47700832 48050708 47780635 47040581 45810566 45520564 45120619 |
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